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How Nintendo is Hurting Themselves
The past three years have been kind to Nintendo. After facing obscurity with the semi-disasters in the fifth and sixth generation that were the Nintendo 64 and Gamecube, respectively, it seemed Nintendo may be on the rocks. And after the 2004 Tokyo Game Show, it seemed even more likely Nintendo was doomed to become the next Sega. Skeptics pointed to the ridiculousness's of Nintendo motion sensing remote. Oh how wrong those pundits were. Since the consoles launch in 2006, the Wii has sold over 56 million worldwide. Most of Nintendo's new found success has been because the “causal market” and by using effective marketing. But I think this'll hurt Nintendo in the long run, and I'm about to tell you why.
First of all, the causal market will not last forever. This may be morbid, but the happy old people you see lining Nintendo's ads will die. And the house-wives that Nintendo has been so happily relying on is going to get bored with Wii Fit and stash their Wii into the closet. It has already started. And the causal market is stupid. All of the top selling Wii games are published by Nintendo. Highly rated Mature Wii games just don't sell. Why you ask? Because what twisted Mom is getting No More Heroes for little Billy. And where is the hardcore market that buys games like Dead Space Extraction? Well that leads me right into my next point, but first I'd like to review. The causal market is a short lived, short sighted market that can't sustain Nintendo (especially when the next generation starts).
So, you ask, why aren't third party games like Madworld selling? Because the hardcore audience has abandoned Nintendo because of Nintendo. It's ironic when you think about. A company that had E3 Press Conference that included the phrase “I'm about kickin' ass and taking names and we're about making games” would adopt a squeaky clean image not seen since the Mortal Kombat censoring days all the way back in the 16 bit generation. But it has happened. I bought a Wii before I got my Xbox 360, thinking it was the best thing ever. Slowly I grew frustrated with Nintendo's increased focus on non-gamers. Two years later and I hardly play on my Wii. Now this isn't all Nintendo's fault, mind you. They did their *best* to hype up the Conduit but the game still failed. But honestly, we've moved on. When the causal market drys up Nintendo is going to come crawling back to you, and your going to say no.
And I am now brought to my final point. This is the most important point and the most damning. Kids are growing with the Xbox and PS3, not the Wii. And that means that Nintendo is not going to have the nostalgia factor they are basing the sales of many of their games on. Ask any boy over 10 what console they game on, the resounding answer will be the 360 or the PS3. So lets consider this scenario. If Nintendo manages to keep going for the next 13 years based on the causal market and then there is a drop off. The “old dog” gamers, now in their 30s and 40s, will refuse to switch to the Zii (or whatever the Nintendo console in 13 years will be) after being burned by Nintendo for so long. The 20-something gamers of that generation will be too busy playing Halo 3: Remastered and will feel nothing toward Nintendo. Nintendo then will either continue in a distant third or go the way of Sega.
So lets review, shall we? Nintendo is relying on a unstable and soon to die causal market while they have been pissing off their real fans. Thinking the Wii is lame, this generation's teenagers go to rival consoles. When the causal market dries up, Nintendo will have no where to go but down. I'm not trying to be overly cynical (but I am), I'm just expressing my opinion. Maybe Nintendo will be able to rely on the grandmothers of the world forever. And maybe I'll become a millionaire.
-Thomas Bunting
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